this is often the most obvious reason as to why a horse
doesn’t run back to his best “number”, it won’t
necessarily translate into high yield returns next out, as there are
far too many good “trip handicappers” these days
to include public selectors and track program line’s makers.
too often, even the “hot dog lady” is aware
of any horse who encountered serious misfortune
last out. These evident “trouble horses” are always overbet
and therefore underlayed in the wagering.
backing such animals proves to be nothing but “downside” risk,
especially when it comes to “beaten favorites”.
a horse was literally “ready” to run his best race or close to it last
out when having a problematic “trip”, he won’t necessarily be exactly
that “ready” next time. Yet,
the public bets him like he’s as safe as opening up a savings account
insured by the FDIC.
is not to say that “legitimate” trouble horses don’t win next out with
better trips, but that’s only because the trainer has managed to keep
the horse “on edge” and maintain top fitness for another try at the
winner’s circle. If he’s really “ready” to win
after his troubled race, he’ll look the part in the paddock and
the pre-race warm-up.
he’s not in “top shape” physically and doesn’t get at least
a 4 furlong cantered warm-up, his troubled trip last out is of little
consequence this afternoon. Unready horses are
trips (good or bad) ALWAYS take a back seat to
race day “physicality”----period!
9-----WRONG RUNNING PROFILE FOR TODAY’S TRACK
you would assume this to be quite obvious to “seasoned” or hardcore
players, it positively isn’t!
too often I’ve heard “alleged” pros state that
this or that “frontrunner” would literally have to loose his jockey
to lose this upcoming race. These words were spoken on days when it
was painfully obvious to a blind man that frontrunners
were collapsing inside the 1/8 pole and getting overrun from behind!!!
a running profile?
a specific style of running that produces winners on any
given afternoon over either the dirt or the turf.
track is a bit different with its very own idiosyncrasies.
at the SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA HORSES TO WATCH have been offering
our clients exclusive tabulations on 4 very
distinct running profiles at each of the 3 major
Southern California tracks for over 9 years!
thing is absolutely certain—my clients wouldn’t be “caught dead”
betting a closer on a frontrunner’s track
your last wager was trying to “beat the running bias” on any specific
afternoon no matter what that bias might have been, I’m sure
he failed to run to his best number regardless of final
finish position. He was more or less running into
don’t need to be a Rocket Scientist to understand that it is much
easier to run with a tail wind rather than
fight a head win.
to beat a strong or established running bias is a big
go “blind” trying to do so!
you’ll sometimes see Graded, Stakes and high-priced classified allowance
horses beat a running bias, the bottom-feeding stock at any racetrack
very rarely accomplishes similar feats.
why Stakes horses are Stakes horses and no-legged cheap claiming horses
are just that---cheap!
closing, I haven’t tried to cover every possible reason
on earth as to why your selection didn’t run back to his
career best “number” on any given afternoon, as it could be something
very simplistic such as having too much dirt
thrown in his face down the backstretch.
yes, it can be that simplistic!!!
what I’ve offered you in this 4-part series is a good starting point
to which you can surely add based on the local “nuances”
that govern your home track(s).